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Rants & Raves

10 FX Predictions for 2018: A 6-month Report Card

In December 2017, I published 10 Foreign Exchange Predictions for 2018. We are now half way through 2018 so it is time to see how they are performing and to grade myself. Overall, I’m giving myself an A-, only scoring an F (for now) on one prediction. Bitcoin: the truth will be told. Grade = A […]
Rants & Raves

Artificial Intelligence and the IKEA flat pack

Artificial Intelligence (AI) seems to be the buzzword of the moment. The term evokes strong feelings ranging from hope of improvements in the quality of life for millions of people, especially through advances in medicine, to fear of barely controlled algorithms that cannot explain their actions. Nonetheless, it can be hard to distinguish between hype, re-branded optimization […]
Rants & Raves

Whitepaper: Foreign Exchange – Are We Really So Different

Rants & Raves

MarketFactory Flash Event Analysis

Click here to watch a 7 min. presentation of our analysis of the GBP/USD flash event from October 7, 2016, including what we learned compared to conventional wisdom. How MarketFactory can help protect market participants against losses associated with flash events:   MarketFactory is connected to 75+ FX venues. Every message on every venue is time-stamped […]
Rants & Raves

Whitepaper: Why does fragmentation continue to increase? Increasing entropy in currency markets

In the spring of 2012, Colin Lambert, editor of Profit & Loss, and I held a one-on-one on stage debate. I believed the currency market would continue to fragment and that there would be even more venues on which to trade currencies in the future; Colin believed the market would consolidate. Colin’s case was somewhat […]
Rants & Raves

10 Foreign Exchange Predictions for 2018

 Bitcoin: the truth will be told. CME will launch futures on bitcoin on December 18. It will then be possible to short sell bitcoin attracting a new cohort of traders. There are parallels here tof the Japanese equities markets in the late 1980s (I lived in Japan at that time). Read my recent blog post.. […]
Rants & Raves

Bitcoin – The Truth Will Soon Be Known

I attended and moderated a panel at FXWeek Europe last week (29 November 2017) and the hot topic was Bitcoin. It got me thinking… In December 1989 I was living in Japan and working for Citibank Tokyo. The yen had strengthened steadily over the previous four years from Y260 to Y123 against the dollar. Land […]
Rants & Raves

Thoughts on the Mark Johnson verdict and the Global Code of Conduct

Colin Lambert, managing editor of Profit & Loss, spoke with James Sinclair, executive chairman of MarketFactory, and Paul Chappell, chief investment officer of C-View Limited, during the Profit & Loss Insight Call on November 2 discussing the Mark Johnson verdict and the Global Code of Conduct. Listen to the Profit & Loss Insight Call Recording – please […]
Rants & Raves

Four Themes from Profit & Loss Chicago 2017 Conference

1. Transaction Cost Analysis (TCA) is Coming …If we can work out what TCA really means in FX Debate: “FX TCA is just a morality carwash” Paul Aston, CEO, Tixall Global Advisors (“for”) & Isaac Lieberman, CEO & Founder, Aston Capital Management (“against”) Isaac drew a sharp distinction between: Third party TCA benchmarks (e.g. BestX, […]
Rants & Raves

Peso Will Remain Attractive Despite Trump

The following is a translation of the article Peso seguirá atractivo pese a Trump which appears in El Fincerio. The Aztec currency is in the top 10 of the most exchanged in the world and is extremely attractive to the traders, despite the volatility. Donald Trump may lead to slowing global trade or foreign direct investment […]
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